Ukraine moving back towards the Kremlin’s embrace after Yushschenko’s fall

Ukraine's outgoing President, Viktor Yushchenko

With the fall of Ukraine’s pro-western President Viktor Yushchenko in last weeks elections, the country looks set to abandon its short-lived flirtations with NATO and the west, and return to the embrace of the Kremlin. Yushchenko came fifth out of an electoral field of 16 with 5.5% of the vote.

The election run-off, which will take place on February 7th, looks set to be a two-horse race between current Prime Minister and Princess Leia look-alike Yulia Tymoshenko and previous Prime Minister and electoral loser in 2004 Viktor Yanukovych.

Yushchenko, who many in the West will recall as being poisoned in the run up to the 2004 election, has said that he will not support either candidate, as he says they “lack democratic principles.”

In 2004 the ‘Orange Revolution‘ which swept Yushchenko to power was viewed by Western commentators as a watershed moment not only in the history of Ukraine, but of all post-Soviet states.

Claiming that it was the “start of a new epoch”, Yushchenko moved the country away from the stifling embrace of Russia towards the west and NATO, leading to inevitable clashes with the Kremlin about, among other things, the Russian fleet’s use of Ukrainian sea ports to dock in, and the 2009 winter gas crisis.

However, much like the ‘Rose Revolution‘ in Georgia, Yushchenko’s bold vision has wilted. The economy has suffered catastrophically during the recession, and the former President failed to implement wide-ranging changes while he was in the post.

The voters have now gone towards two candidates who are overtly looking to move Russia back towards its old neighbour. Whereas Yushchenko had wanted to one day bring Ukraine into NATO, a move which obviously angered and panicked Moscow, Yanukovych has already said that under his stewardship the country would never join the alliance.

While Tymoshenko was once Yushchenko’s staunchest ally, the two have fallen out to such an extent that the Prime Minister looks set to abandon her party’s western vision. Yanukovych, the bad guy at the 2004 elections, is not as pro-Russia as he might seem, but both favour patching up the relations that have become frayed in the last few years.

Presidential rivals Yanukovych and Tymoshenko

With the Ukrainian people eager for a strong hand at the tiller to guide them through the potentially troubling next few years, it’s inevitable that rapprochements will be made between Kiev and Moscow. However this could lead to Ukraine becoming yet another of Russia’s pawns in its ongoing impasse with NATO and Western nations, with deals and policies happening at the expense of the Ukrainian people.

With the country being in such dire straits, whoever becomes president may have to go, cap in hand, to the Kremlin for help. And while they will in almost certainly oblige, you can be sure that there will strings attached.

What do you think about what’s happening in Ukraine’s elections? What will the consequences of Ukraine’s move back towards Russia be? Please feel free to comment below.

Has Another Gas Crisis Been Averted?

The Druzhba Pipeline

The ever-growing dependence of Europe on oil was illustrated ever so well last winter when a dispute between Russia and Ukraine resulted in many Eastern and Central European nations being deprived of their supplies.

Although an absolute drying up of the supply that runs from Russia, through Ukraine and into the centre of Europe, was averted, it showed how much a Russia willing to turn off the tap could hurt the EU.

Over the last week it appears as though another such crisis, which could still have far-reaching consequences, has been avoided.

On New Years Eve Russia cut oil supplies to its neighbour Belarus, whose territory the Druzhba pipeline runs through on its way to deposit oil in Poland and Germany, as well as supplying Belarus’s internal oil needs.

As part of a loose customs union with Russia, Belarus only had to pay around 35% of standard crude oil tariffs to the federation, but the two countries have since failed to agree a new deal. In light of this the Russian government looks to have imposed the full tariff back on Belarus.

In light of the failure of the negotiations Belarus stated, perhaps wrongly, that Russia had started curbing its supplies to the Belarusian refineries of Naftan and Mozyr, which are key hubs for the oil’s transportation to Europe.

Russia denied cutting the oil supply and a refinery in Poland has confirmed that the flow has continued.

It appears that a crisis of last years magnitude has been avoided but it shows how much even a tiny fright such as this can affect world oil prices. Oil prices rose to over $80 a barrel for the first time since the worldwide cold snap began, and this shows how twitchy the world market has become over the sensitive region through which so much of the world’s oil flows.

After second election failure, where now for Moldova?

President-elect Marian Lupu failed to get the 61 votes necessary to be elected.

Moldova has failed to elect a president, meaning there is now a large likelihood that the country will have to go to a third general election in this calendar year.

After a coalition of the country’s left-leaning parties won the last election in July there was hope that the country could move out of the shadow cast by the rule of the Communist PCRM party since 2001. The previous elections in April were marred by alleged fraudulence and violent protests in Chisinau which were probably instigated by the ruling Communists.

With a mandate to restore libertarian values that any democratic nation should regard as —- and the move Moldova closer towards the European integration that its people crave, the Alliance for European Integration selected Marian Lupu as its candidate for the presidency.

However, the problem which was always likely to arise was that a new president would require 61 votes from the parliament in order to be elected. In the end Lupu polled only 53 votes, largely because former president Vladimir Voronin successfully prevented Communist deputies from voting for him by imposing a voting ban on all PCRM members.

Even before the dreaded concept of another election comes into play, the Moldovan constitution decrees that a parliament must be dissolved if a president is not elected BUT it also decrees that parliament cannot be dissolved twice in one year.

The AIE is now thinking about changing the constitution so a president may be voted by a majority of deputies, or by the electorate directly, thereby minimising the harm that can be dealt by Voronin’s tactics.

AIE politicians remain confident that the PCRM’s tactics will not prevent the election of Lupu, with Prime Minister Mihai Ghimpu saying it may not happen today or tomorrow, but “the day after tomorrow”.

Although the PCRM’s boycott may have derailed the democratic process for now, it is only isolating itself further, and disaffecting more of the electorate who want an end to the megalomania of Voronin and the inherent corruption of his regime.

For now though, it looks like going back to the drawing board once again for Moldova.

Voronin's stalling tactics have worked - for now.

Who Bombed the Nevsky Express?

Workers with one of the derailed carriages of the Nevsky Express

At 09:34pm Moscow time,  Friday November 27, a bomb equivalent to 7kg of TNT detonated on rail tracks near the town of Bologoye, Russia, as the Nevsky Express train carried 661 passengers between Moscow and St Petersburg.

The blast derailed 4 carriages of the luxury express train, and killed over two dozen people. Russian authorities later fixed the figure at 26 fatalities, with 95 injured.

After the confusion subsided, Russian Railways Chief Vladimir Yakunin confirmed that two explosive devices had been planted under the tracks. The second one detonated at 2pm Moscow time on Saturday 28 November without injuring anyone.

But who had detonated the bomb and caused such a large loss of life, and why had this train been targeted?

The second question may prove easier to answer than the first. The Nevsky Express is one of the most luxuriant trains in all of Russia, and can cover the 650km between Moscow and St Petersburg in only four hours.

It is the preferred method of transport for government officials and some have been named as among the dead, including the head of the Federal Reserve Agency and the deputy head of the Fishing Agency. It’s clear the bombers were targetting specific people, not just ordinary Russian citizens.

So who perpetrated the act?

The fact that there were two planned detonations may give a clue. Terrorist cells from the North Caucasus, Chechnya and Ingushetia especially, use the “double-blast” technique to cause maximum casualties on those investigating the effects of the original blast.

The blast was almost identical to one on the same line in 2007 and similar to earlier incidents, suggesting it is part of a concerted, long-term strategy of terror.

There is, nominally, peace in Chechnya under the pro-Kremlin President Kadyrov (read my previous blog on it here), but militant groups are still active, albeit within the confines of the Caucasus mainly, and Ingushetia is still going through a vicious cycle of violence.

However, there are also theories that far-right extremist groups are to blame, with there being one unverified claim of responsibility from a neo-nazi group opposed to immigration.

Russian police have, however, released a photo ID of someone they suspect, who is believed to be Pavel Kosolapov, a former associate of ex-Chechen rebel leader Shamil Basayev.

If, as expected, the Kremlin points the finger at the separatists of the North Caucasus, don’t expect Chechnya to be out of the news for too much longer.

Has new Moldovan government opened a can of worms over Transdniestria?

The country that doesn't exist

Even though the Republic of Moldova has recently celebrated toppling its corrupt Communist party from government, the new regime have already landed on their first major stumbling block.

While Moldova itself is almost totally unknown in the West, the breakaway region of Transdniestria will be known to even less people.

The Priednetstrovian Moldavian Republic, as it has been styled, has been effectively independent from Moldova since 1991 while still being part of it in the eyes of both the Moldovan government, and western ones.

The country itself is one of the few remaining relics of the USSR, with a corrupt leader (Igor Smirnov), a police state mentality and even an unintentionally hilarious website proclaiming the countries “free and fair elections” and commitment to “minority ethnic rights”.

A government building in Tiraspol, capital of Transdniestria.

Smirnov and his cronies have remained so cosy since 1991 because the Russian (formerly Soviet) 14th Army of the Russian  has been there for decades and since 1991 acting as ‘peacekeepers’. Despite consistent calls for their withdrawal, they are still there.

It is this occupation that Moldovan PM Vlad Filat has demanded an end to, potentially setting the new government at loggerheads with Moscow.

Former Communist President/Boris Yeltsin lookalike Vladimir Voronin cosied up to the Kremlin and so conveniently tidied the Transdniestrian question under the carpet for his eight years of rule.

Filat and acting President Mihai Ghimpu realise that this question will have to be answered before Moldova can ever realistically think of admission to the EU, something it’s people crave.

Filat has rejected the notion that Moldova could join NATO, but wants Russia to respect the territorial integrity of the country by pulling its troops out.

Filat will undoubtedly be more vigorous in requesting this than Voronin and his ministers ever were, but seeing as the summit of the Community of Independent States (formerly members of the USSR), hosted in Chisinau, went by without any breakthrough it seems likely that his words will fall on deaf ears.

Filat is demanding that Russia treat his country with “dignity” in respecting its sovereignty, but it is rare that the Kremlin will treat small nations like Moldova as such. For the moment, it looks as though Russia’s real motives for maintaining its ‘peacekeepers’ in Transdniestria will remain a mystery.

Still, at least this blogger had an inventive way of solving the problem.

Ukraine and Poland struggling to scale down corruption ahead of Euro 2012

­Ukrainian Football Federation President Hryhoriy Surkis, UEFA President Michel Platini and Poland’s Football Federation President Grzegorz Lato (L-R)

Poles and Ukrainians are understandably over the moon about hosting the Euro 2012 football tournament, but it’s to be hoped that the two nation’s moment in the sun isn’t undermined by endemic corruption.

While the countries fans would rather talk about Lewandowski vs Shevchenko, or who’ll have the best beer to offer visiting fans, it is instead corruption and hooliganism that’ll be on the tips of everyones tongues leading up to the tournament.

The fact that what should be a showcase to display what’s great about these wonderful counties may be overshadowed by their oft-documented problems has riled up Poles and Ukrainians no end. In fact, ahem, political heavyweight Vitali Klitschko got so riled up that he recently brawled at the Ukrainian parliament.

Ukraine’s image has always been shady since presidential candidate (and recently deposed head honcho) Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned with a fish by his opponents in the 2004 election campaign.

Corruption is rife in the country, where even the pro-Western, reformist Yushchenko appointed a billionaire media magnate as deputy head of the countries intelligence service.

The corruption has inevitably filtered down to the nations favourite sport, where many clubs are basically just alternative revenue sources for gangsters responsible for murders and kidnappings.

A recent survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology saw 76% of Ukrainians sure that corruption would, in some way, effect the tournament. Shockingly, less than a third of those polled (29%) thought that Ukraine would do a good job in hosting Euro 2012.

In Poland, 17 referees, club officials and Polish Football Federation (PZPN) representatives were sentenced to up to four years in prison for their part in league-wide corruption. There are now only 15 referees allowed to take charge of top flight matches.

Strangely, Polish attempts to battle the corruption rife within the PZPN have been hampered by world governing body FIFA. When the Polish authorities attempted to suspend the entire board of the PZPN, FIFA, worrying about the autonomy of football associations, threatened suspension of the national team from competition.

Hooligans in Poland are considered among the most violent and right-wing in Europe (look, even Ross Kemp thinks so), and so will worry Poles, FIFA and visiting fans equally. Nothing stains a countries reputation in footballing terms as much as hooliganism.

But despite this list of black marks, the path to 2012 does look a bit rosier than before. PM Yulia Tymoshenko is determined to stamp out corruption and make sure Ukraines infrastructure can withstand the visiting hordes.

And UEFA president Michel Platini is clearly pleased enough with Ukraines progress to scale down his organisations alert level from red to orange, while Croatia is eager to help them stage the event as efficiently as possible.

Across the border meanwhile, former playing legend Grzegorz Lato has been chosen to replace the unpopular Michal Listkiewicz as president of the PZPN amid fresh hopes that corruption can finally be dealt a crippling blow.

These are hopeful noises, but it’s early days to see whether the two nations can deliver the tournament that they both deserve.

Who ate all the rolada z modrą kapustą?

What dictators do on the weekend

I know this is a few months old, but thought it was worth sharing.

In, ahem, ‘a bid to appeal to youngsters’ Belarus’s President Lukashenko, usually known as Europe’s last dictator, mounted a Harley Davidson at the Minsk 2009 biker rally in July.

Whether it’s Gordon Brown waking up to the Arctic Monkeys or an East European tyrant hurtling down a highway, politicians just can’t resist trying to get that youth vote by any way possible.

Still, being a dictator, I can see Lukashenko having a bit more success appealing to youngsters. The fact he’s not Gordon Brown must help a bit too.

Equality’s final frontier? The Romany

Romany people protest against discrimination.

Q: What links a former USSR army officer and the decidely middle class inhabitants of a rural Gloucestershire community?

A: They both have what can politely be described as “unfavourable” views of ‘Gypsies’.

In a 21st Century world where slimy toads such as Nick Griffin and Jean-Marie Le Pen can be rightly lambasted for their hateful and xenophobic political views, why is it that ‘gypsies’ are still reviled across Europe?

Sure there are horror stories about light-fingered pickpockets and travellers who run roughshod over the law. But in communities where they are unequivocally shunned, sometimes they don’t really have many other choices.

When I was in Odessa, in the Ukraine, an ex-USSR army officer said to me that he had once been ‘hypnotised’ by a gypsy lady into buying her wares.

In Moldova, a family I was staying with told me to watch my valuables when they saw a family of Romany board our trolleybus.

In Romania where the Romany are utterly reviled, Madonna was booed when she expressed sadness over the hatred levelled at the gypsy population in Eastern Europe. Can’t say I’m the old bats biggest fan, but she was spot on here.

In Italy, here’s a pretty worrying example of how they’re discriminated against. And here’s one from Belfast too.

And even in my own sleepy home of Newent, Gloucestershire, the (admittedly pretty illegal) actions of some travellers brought howls of opprobrium from normally rational folk.

The examples could go on really. And if anything, within the UK it actually appears to have gotten worse.

So why, in a society where we have rightly renounced all other kinds of hatred based on a persons race, does this lazy hateful stereotyping continue?

When someone makes a comment wholy based on another persons appearance or culture, they are right to be shouted down. Why doesn’t this rule apply to the Romany and other traveller communities of the UK and the rest of the world?

All people deserve equality. And that certainly isn’t what the Romany are getting.

Racist propaganda from a Romanian nationalist party: pretty sure you can understand the point it's trying to make.

Why is everyone so interested in the agreement between Turkey and Armenia?

OK, so hands up, who thinks the agreement between Turkey and Armenia is a big deal for the rest of Europe?

Although it is indeed a huge milestone in the history of the two nations, it is doubtful that many who are not from the countries will think that it has much of a direct consequence for the rest of Europe.

Armenia’s neighbour, and Turkish buddy Azerbaijan, however, is decidely unhappy with this accord. Although at first glance it would appear that they have nought to do with what is a bi-national agreement, they too have a big stake, and one which European foreign ministers will be watching with the utmost interest.

This dates back to 1993, when Armenia invaded Azerbaijan. This was a result of the Azeris trying to militarily subdue an enclave within their own borders, which is occupied mainly by ethnic Armenians.

Armenia now wants the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave to be recognised as part of their own territory before anything can go further.

OK, so far you will no doubt be thinking, all very interesting, but so what?

The answer to that comes in the countries geographical positions. Azerbaijan lies on the Caspian Sea, which happens to have huge oil resources.

In 2014, the Nabucco oil pipeline is due to open, pumping oil from Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea coast to an EU desparate to bypass the complications of routing it through Russia.

Armenia effectively blocks the route of this pipeline, which could only otherwise run through Russia, Georgia or Iran. Somehow I don’t think it would be a good idea to go through any of them.

As proven by the gas crisis this January which caused a predictably hysterical response, this is something that has a great importance for the whole of Europe as it looks to wean itself off Russian energy.

If the issue doesn’t get resolved, you might just hear a bit more about it, as EU foreign ministers get more nervous ahead of 2014.

↓ A fan at the Turkey-Armenia football match, coincedentally happening tonight.

Controversy still dogs troubled Chechnya

↑ Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov does a jig after voting in the elections.

Along with the rest of the Russian Federation, Chechnya went to the polling stations on Sunday, but unlike the rest of the country it is the first time that its people have been able to vote locally since Soviet times.

In an election seen as crucial in the development of this troubled republic, the people have been casting their votes for local governmental positions, as well as voting for the capital Grozny’s new mayor.

Although the country is healing from the scars left by its devastation at the hands of the Russian army and separatists from 1994 to 2009 (Grozny recently won a UN prize for its post-conflict reconstruction), it is a country that is still deeply troubled.

Last week President Ramzan Kadyrov received 50,000 roubles ($1,677) damages from a leading Russian human rights group, Memorial, who had accused him of being behind the murder of one of their activists in July.

Memorial chairman Oleg Orlov rather jumped the gun by stating this, but it is clear that there is a lot to be done before Chechnya can be considered stable. Three NGO workers have been killed in the past year.

Allegations brought forward by one of Kadyrov’s former bodyguards, Usmar Israilov, and published in the New York Times, also point to sometimes shocking human rights violations and suppression of official information.

Mr Israilov, strangely enough, wound up dead: he was murdered by two gunmen in Vienna earlier this year. In the wake of this The New York Times has been able to publish in full his story: it makes for grim but fascinating reading.

Kazyrov was chosen personally by Vladimir Putin in 2007 as a compliant firebrand to lead the republic and has proven to be a loyal strongman for the Russian government.

Even though Chechnya has improved massively since Grozny became a by-word for utter destruction, it appears that it still has a long way to go on the path to any kind of real peace.

↓ Military chic? President Kayzrov (c) with fashion designer Roberto Cavalli (l) last week.