Advocaat to continue Russia’s Dutch tradition

Dick Advocaat (right) with Guus Hiddink, the man he is set to replace as manager of Russia

Dick Advocaat looks set to be named the new manager of the Russian national football team and follow in the footsteps of compatriot Guus Hiddink.

The Dutchman stepped down from his 600,000 euro-a-year post as the Belgian national manager on Thursday, and confirmed today (Friday) to a Russian sports newspaper that he is holding talks with the Russian Football Association.

“The little general” is no stranger to Russian football, having led a talented Zenit St Petersburg team featuring Andrey Arshavin, Alexandr Anyukov and Anatoliy Tymoschuk to a UEFA cup win against his former club Rangers in 2008.

Although he moved to Belgium in August 2009 to be closer to his family in Holland, it seems the lure of qualifying with Russia for the 2012 European Championships was too much to resist. Having left his contract in the lowlands after only six months, the Belgian FA are looking into possible legal actions they can take against Advocaat.

Needless to say Advocaat’s salary demands have led to speculation about the reasons behind the move and how much he will be earning: it’s expected he will earn substantially more than he was with Belgium. However, it is clear that Russia represents a much better chance of adding to his glittering trophy cabinet than Belgium.

To make matters more complicated, Advocaat is still manager of Dutch Eredivise title-holders AZ Alkmaar, and it remains to be seen whether he can successfully juggle his twin committments between gruelling long-haul flights back and forth across Europe.

His predecessor in Russia, Hiddink, led an unfancied Russia team to the semi-finals of the 2008 European Championships, eviscerating a talented Dutch team en route to a defeat against eventual winners Spain, and became Russia’s favourite foreigner.

However, Hiddink’s failure to guide the team to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, falling at the play off stage of qualification to lowly Slovenia, led to recriminations and his eventual resignation and installation as manager of the Turkish national team.

So now it will be Advocaat’s remit to match and better Hiddink’s achievements with the national team, and with his wily nous and an undisputably talented squad, who’s to say he won’t go one better and reach Russia’s first final since Soviet times.

Racist violence in Hungary is a symptom of a Europe-wide trend

Members of the nationalist Hungarian Guard at a rally

I’ve written about the difficulties Romany people face before. They are unique as a people on our continent in that they continue to be discriminated against on a Europe-wide scale, yet nothing seems to be done to combat the amount of bile that is directed at them.

The most stark image depicting this came from Slovakia, where a 500-foot-long, 7-metre-high wall has been built in the village of Ostrovany, to keep the Roma separated from their neighbours, despite the fact that they actually form the majority of the village’s population.

This issue is especially pertinent at a time when far-right groups from across Europe are clamouring to gain more votes and exert more influence. From the odious Nick Griffin and the BNP in the UK to increasingly vocal hooligan groups in Russia and Poland, the far-right seems to be gaining confidence continent-wide.

This is especially true in Hungary. In the election results from Sunday’s poll, the far-right Jobbik group won a staggering 16.9%, and now constitute the central European country’s third-largest political entity.

While the incoming centre-right Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, has said he will do everything he can to stem the fascist flow, this is a worrying symptom of popular opinion on the continent at the moment.  If history can teach us anything, it’s that times of economic hardship lead to the rise of disaffected voters who can find solace in the arms of the far-right.

Jobbik, who have already accused Orban and his Fidesz party of electoral fraud, are committed to a racist manifesto of “cleaning” Hungary up – something that will cause huge consternation among liberals and minority communities alike.

They are also directly linked to the Hungarian Guard (Magyar Gárda Mozgalom), a black-clad nationalist organisation whose uniforms bring to mind the fascist paramilitary organisations of the 1920s and 30s. In a way it could be described as the SS to Jobbik’s Nazi party.

In a climate in which it is easy to make scapegoats of such minorities as the Roma, attacks have increased massively since around 2008. 45 violent attacks and nine fatalities have been officially reported since the economic downturn started to bite, and it’s likely that number is far larger. The killings appear to be well planned, strongly suggesting that it is a co-ordinated nation-wide campaign as opposed to a few incidents of localised racial tension.

A special police force has been formed to protect the Roma, who constitute 6% of the country’s 10 million people, but it’s still unclear as to how effective they have been.

Although this may seem a long distance away and irrelevant to us in the UK, the rise of the far-right is noticeable across the whole of Europe, and Hungary is showing some of the worst excesses that can come out of nationalist movements. However they may dress themselves up to look appealing to voters disenchanted with the political mainstream, far-right parties across the continent are in effect party to this xenophobic violence through their ideologies. Resisting them at every turn is key to maintaining the civil liberties that we all, deservedly, enjoy.

Ukraine moving back towards the Kremlin’s embrace after Yushschenko’s fall

Ukraine's outgoing President, Viktor Yushchenko

With the fall of Ukraine’s pro-western President Viktor Yushchenko in last weeks elections, the country looks set to abandon its short-lived flirtations with NATO and the west, and return to the embrace of the Kremlin. Yushchenko came fifth out of an electoral field of 16 with 5.5% of the vote.

The election run-off, which will take place on February 7th, looks set to be a two-horse race between current Prime Minister and Princess Leia look-alike Yulia Tymoshenko and previous Prime Minister and electoral loser in 2004 Viktor Yanukovych.

Yushchenko, who many in the West will recall as being poisoned in the run up to the 2004 election, has said that he will not support either candidate, as he says they “lack democratic principles.”

In 2004 the ‘Orange Revolution‘ which swept Yushchenko to power was viewed by Western commentators as a watershed moment not only in the history of Ukraine, but of all post-Soviet states.

Claiming that it was the “start of a new epoch”, Yushchenko moved the country away from the stifling embrace of Russia towards the west and NATO, leading to inevitable clashes with the Kremlin about, among other things, the Russian fleet’s use of Ukrainian sea ports to dock in, and the 2009 winter gas crisis.

However, much like the ‘Rose Revolution‘ in Georgia, Yushchenko’s bold vision has wilted. The economy has suffered catastrophically during the recession, and the former President failed to implement wide-ranging changes while he was in the post.

The voters have now gone towards two candidates who are overtly looking to move Russia back towards its old neighbour. Whereas Yushchenko had wanted to one day bring Ukraine into NATO, a move which obviously angered and panicked Moscow, Yanukovych has already said that under his stewardship the country would never join the alliance.

While Tymoshenko was once Yushchenko’s staunchest ally, the two have fallen out to such an extent that the Prime Minister looks set to abandon her party’s western vision. Yanukovych, the bad guy at the 2004 elections, is not as pro-Russia as he might seem, but both favour patching up the relations that have become frayed in the last few years.

Presidential rivals Yanukovych and Tymoshenko

With the Ukrainian people eager for a strong hand at the tiller to guide them through the potentially troubling next few years, it’s inevitable that rapprochements will be made between Kiev and Moscow. However this could lead to Ukraine becoming yet another of Russia’s pawns in its ongoing impasse with NATO and Western nations, with deals and policies happening at the expense of the Ukrainian people.

With the country being in such dire straits, whoever becomes president may have to go, cap in hand, to the Kremlin for help. And while they will in almost certainly oblige, you can be sure that there will strings attached.

What do you think about what’s happening in Ukraine’s elections? What will the consequences of Ukraine’s move back towards Russia be? Please feel free to comment below.

Has Another Gas Crisis Been Averted?

The Druzhba Pipeline

The ever-growing dependence of Europe on oil was illustrated ever so well last winter when a dispute between Russia and Ukraine resulted in many Eastern and Central European nations being deprived of their supplies.

Although an absolute drying up of the supply that runs from Russia, through Ukraine and into the centre of Europe, was averted, it showed how much a Russia willing to turn off the tap could hurt the EU.

Over the last week it appears as though another such crisis, which could still have far-reaching consequences, has been avoided.

On New Years Eve Russia cut oil supplies to its neighbour Belarus, whose territory the Druzhba pipeline runs through on its way to deposit oil in Poland and Germany, as well as supplying Belarus’s internal oil needs.

As part of a loose customs union with Russia, Belarus only had to pay around 35% of standard crude oil tariffs to the federation, but the two countries have since failed to agree a new deal. In light of this the Russian government looks to have imposed the full tariff back on Belarus.

In light of the failure of the negotiations Belarus stated, perhaps wrongly, that Russia had started curbing its supplies to the Belarusian refineries of Naftan and Mozyr, which are key hubs for the oil’s transportation to Europe.

Russia denied cutting the oil supply and a refinery in Poland has confirmed that the flow has continued.

It appears that a crisis of last years magnitude has been avoided but it shows how much even a tiny fright such as this can affect world oil prices. Oil prices rose to over $80 a barrel for the first time since the worldwide cold snap began, and this shows how twitchy the world market has become over the sensitive region through which so much of the world’s oil flows.

After second election failure, where now for Moldova?

President-elect Marian Lupu failed to get the 61 votes necessary to be elected.

Moldova has failed to elect a president, meaning there is now a large likelihood that the country will have to go to a third general election in this calendar year.

After a coalition of the country’s left-leaning parties won the last election in July there was hope that the country could move out of the shadow cast by the rule of the Communist PCRM party since 2001. The previous elections in April were marred by alleged fraudulence and violent protests in Chisinau which were probably instigated by the ruling Communists.

With a mandate to restore libertarian values that any democratic nation should regard as —- and the move Moldova closer towards the European integration that its people crave, the Alliance for European Integration selected Marian Lupu as its candidate for the presidency.

However, the problem which was always likely to arise was that a new president would require 61 votes from the parliament in order to be elected. In the end Lupu polled only 53 votes, largely because former president Vladimir Voronin successfully prevented Communist deputies from voting for him by imposing a voting ban on all PCRM members.

Even before the dreaded concept of another election comes into play, the Moldovan constitution decrees that a parliament must be dissolved if a president is not elected BUT it also decrees that parliament cannot be dissolved twice in one year.

The AIE is now thinking about changing the constitution so a president may be voted by a majority of deputies, or by the electorate directly, thereby minimising the harm that can be dealt by Voronin’s tactics.

AIE politicians remain confident that the PCRM’s tactics will not prevent the election of Lupu, with Prime Minister Mihai Ghimpu saying it may not happen today or tomorrow, but “the day after tomorrow”.

Although the PCRM’s boycott may have derailed the democratic process for now, it is only isolating itself further, and disaffecting more of the electorate who want an end to the megalomania of Voronin and the inherent corruption of his regime.

For now though, it looks like going back to the drawing board once again for Moldova.

Voronin's stalling tactics have worked - for now.

Who Bombed the Nevsky Express?

Workers with one of the derailed carriages of the Nevsky Express

At 09:34pm Moscow time,  Friday November 27, a bomb equivalent to 7kg of TNT detonated on rail tracks near the town of Bologoye, Russia, as the Nevsky Express train carried 661 passengers between Moscow and St Petersburg.

The blast derailed 4 carriages of the luxury express train, and killed over two dozen people. Russian authorities later fixed the figure at 26 fatalities, with 95 injured.

After the confusion subsided, Russian Railways Chief Vladimir Yakunin confirmed that two explosive devices had been planted under the tracks. The second one detonated at 2pm Moscow time on Saturday 28 November without injuring anyone.

But who had detonated the bomb and caused such a large loss of life, and why had this train been targeted?

The second question may prove easier to answer than the first. The Nevsky Express is one of the most luxuriant trains in all of Russia, and can cover the 650km between Moscow and St Petersburg in only four hours.

It is the preferred method of transport for government officials and some have been named as among the dead, including the head of the Federal Reserve Agency and the deputy head of the Fishing Agency. It’s clear the bombers were targetting specific people, not just ordinary Russian citizens.

So who perpetrated the act?

The fact that there were two planned detonations may give a clue. Terrorist cells from the North Caucasus, Chechnya and Ingushetia especially, use the “double-blast” technique to cause maximum casualties on those investigating the effects of the original blast.

The blast was almost identical to one on the same line in 2007 and similar to earlier incidents, suggesting it is part of a concerted, long-term strategy of terror.

There is, nominally, peace in Chechnya under the pro-Kremlin President Kadyrov (read my previous blog on it here), but militant groups are still active, albeit within the confines of the Caucasus mainly, and Ingushetia is still going through a vicious cycle of violence.

However, there are also theories that far-right extremist groups are to blame, with there being one unverified claim of responsibility from a neo-nazi group opposed to immigration.

Russian police have, however, released a photo ID of someone they suspect, who is believed to be Pavel Kosolapov, a former associate of ex-Chechen rebel leader Shamil Basayev.

If, as expected, the Kremlin points the finger at the separatists of the North Caucasus, don’t expect Chechnya to be out of the news for too much longer.

Has new Moldovan government opened a can of worms over Transdniestria?

The country that doesn't exist

Even though the Republic of Moldova has recently celebrated toppling its corrupt Communist party from government, the new regime have already landed on their first major stumbling block.

While Moldova itself is almost totally unknown in the West, the breakaway region of Transdniestria will be known to even less people.

The Priednetstrovian Moldavian Republic, as it has been styled, has been effectively independent from Moldova since 1991 while still being part of it in the eyes of both the Moldovan government, and western ones.

The country itself is one of the few remaining relics of the USSR, with a corrupt leader (Igor Smirnov), a police state mentality and even an unintentionally hilarious website proclaiming the countries “free and fair elections” and commitment to “minority ethnic rights”.

A government building in Tiraspol, capital of Transdniestria.

Smirnov and his cronies have remained so cosy since 1991 because the Russian (formerly Soviet) 14th Army of the Russian  has been there for decades and since 1991 acting as ‘peacekeepers’. Despite consistent calls for their withdrawal, they are still there.

It is this occupation that Moldovan PM Vlad Filat has demanded an end to, potentially setting the new government at loggerheads with Moscow.

Former Communist President/Boris Yeltsin lookalike Vladimir Voronin cosied up to the Kremlin and so conveniently tidied the Transdniestrian question under the carpet for his eight years of rule.

Filat and acting President Mihai Ghimpu realise that this question will have to be answered before Moldova can ever realistically think of admission to the EU, something it’s people crave.

Filat has rejected the notion that Moldova could join NATO, but wants Russia to respect the territorial integrity of the country by pulling its troops out.

Filat will undoubtedly be more vigorous in requesting this than Voronin and his ministers ever were, but seeing as the summit of the Community of Independent States (formerly members of the USSR), hosted in Chisinau, went by without any breakthrough it seems likely that his words will fall on deaf ears.

Filat is demanding that Russia treat his country with “dignity” in respecting its sovereignty, but it is rare that the Kremlin will treat small nations like Moldova as such. For the moment, it looks as though Russia’s real motives for maintaining its ‘peacekeepers’ in Transdniestria will remain a mystery.

Still, at least this blogger had an inventive way of solving the problem.