
Ukraine's outgoing President, Viktor Yushchenko
With the fall of Ukraine’s pro-western President Viktor Yushchenko in last weeks elections, the country looks set to abandon its short-lived flirtations with NATO and the west, and return to the embrace of the Kremlin. Yushchenko came fifth out of an electoral field of 16 with 5.5% of the vote.
The election run-off, which will take place on February 7th, looks set to be a two-horse race between current Prime Minister and Princess Leia look-alike Yulia Tymoshenko and previous Prime Minister and electoral loser in 2004 Viktor Yanukovych.
Yushchenko, who many in the West will recall as being poisoned in the run up to the 2004 election, has said that he will not support either candidate, as he says they “lack democratic principles.”
In 2004 the ‘Orange Revolution‘ which swept Yushchenko to power was viewed by Western commentators as a watershed moment not only in the history of Ukraine, but of all post-Soviet states.
Claiming that it was the “start of a new epoch”, Yushchenko moved the country away from the stifling embrace of Russia towards the west and NATO, leading to inevitable clashes with the Kremlin about, among other things, the Russian fleet’s use of Ukrainian sea ports to dock in, and the 2009 winter gas crisis.
However, much like the ‘Rose Revolution‘ in Georgia, Yushchenko’s bold vision has wilted. The economy has suffered catastrophically during the recession, and the former President failed to implement wide-ranging changes while he was in the post.
The voters have now gone towards two candidates who are overtly looking to move Russia back towards its old neighbour. Whereas Yushchenko had wanted to one day bring Ukraine into NATO, a move which obviously angered and panicked Moscow, Yanukovych has already said that under his stewardship the country would never join the alliance.
While Tymoshenko was once Yushchenko’s staunchest ally, the two have fallen out to such an extent that the Prime Minister looks set to abandon her party’s western vision. Yanukovych, the bad guy at the 2004 elections, is not as pro-Russia as he might seem, but both favour patching up the relations that have become frayed in the last few years.

Presidential rivals Yanukovych and Tymoshenko
With the Ukrainian people eager for a strong hand at the tiller to guide them through the potentially troubling next few years, it’s inevitable that rapprochements will be made between Kiev and Moscow. However this could lead to Ukraine becoming yet another of Russia’s pawns in its ongoing impasse with NATO and Western nations, with deals and policies happening at the expense of the Ukrainian people.
With the country being in such dire straits, whoever becomes president may have to go, cap in hand, to the Kremlin for help. And while they will in almost certainly oblige, you can be sure that there will strings attached.
What do you think about what’s happening in Ukraine’s elections? What will the consequences of Ukraine’s move back towards Russia be? Please feel free to comment below.









Has new Moldovan government opened a can of worms over Transdniestria?
Posted in News and Comment with tags 14th Army, 1991, Boris Yeltsin, Chisinau, CIS, Communists, Community of Independent States, EU, Igor Smirnov, Kremlin, Mihai Ghimpu, Moldavia, Moldova, Moscow, NATO, peacekeepers, PM, Priednetstrovia, Priednetstrovian Moldavian Republic, Tiraspol, Transdnestr, Transdniestr, Transdniestria, Transnistria, USSR, Vlad Filat, Vladimir Voronin on November 19, 2009 by jamesofranklinThe country that doesn't exist
Even though the Republic of Moldova has recently celebrated toppling its corrupt Communist party from government, the new regime have already landed on their first major stumbling block.
While Moldova itself is almost totally unknown in the West, the breakaway region of Transdniestria will be known to even less people.
The Priednetstrovian Moldavian Republic, as it has been styled, has been effectively independent from Moldova since 1991 while still being part of it in the eyes of both the Moldovan government, and western ones.
The country itself is one of the few remaining relics of the USSR, with a corrupt leader (Igor Smirnov), a police state mentality and even an unintentionally hilarious website proclaiming the countries “free and fair elections” and commitment to “minority ethnic rights”.
A government building in Tiraspol, capital of Transdniestria.
Smirnov and his cronies have remained so cosy since 1991 because the Russian (formerly Soviet) 14th Army of the Russian has been there for decades and since 1991 acting as ‘peacekeepers’. Despite consistent calls for their withdrawal, they are still there.
It is this occupation that Moldovan PM Vlad Filat has demanded an end to, potentially setting the new government at loggerheads with Moscow.
Former Communist President/Boris Yeltsin lookalike Vladimir Voronin cosied up to the Kremlin and so conveniently tidied the Transdniestrian question under the carpet for his eight years of rule.
Filat and acting President Mihai Ghimpu realise that this question will have to be answered before Moldova can ever realistically think of admission to the EU, something it’s people crave.
Filat has rejected the notion that Moldova could join NATO, but wants Russia to respect the territorial integrity of the country by pulling its troops out.
Filat will undoubtedly be more vigorous in requesting this than Voronin and his ministers ever were, but seeing as the summit of the Community of Independent States (formerly members of the USSR), hosted in Chisinau, went by without any breakthrough it seems likely that his words will fall on deaf ears.
Filat is demanding that Russia treat his country with “dignity” in respecting its sovereignty, but it is rare that the Kremlin will treat small nations like Moldova as such. For the moment, it looks as though Russia’s real motives for maintaining its ‘peacekeepers’ in Transdniestria will remain a mystery.
Still, at least this blogger had an inventive way of solving the problem.
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